Global Rates of Gout Rising in Young Adults

Rates of adolescent gout are increasing worldwide, representing an escalating global health issue, and early intervention is needed to reduce disease burden, according to a new study.1

“Gout increasingly affects adolescents. However, comprehensive data on adolescent gout are scarce. This study aimed to analyze the incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and risk factors for gout in adolescents aged 10-24 years via the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database from 1990 to 2021,” lead investigator Yueshan Pang, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, China, and colleagues wrote.1

Pang and colleagues analyzed cross-sectional data from the GBD 2021 study, including people aged 10-24 years. They utilized incidence, prevalence, YLD, and risk factor data for gout. They used linear regression analysis to analyze trends across different sociodemographic index (SDI) levels and exponential annualized percentage change (EAPC) rates. They also employed a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model with an integrated nested Laplace approximation to predict the age-standardized incidence rate of gout among adolescents over the next 15 years worldwide and in China, Taiwan, Qatar, and Maldives.

The investigators found that the global incidence number of gout in adolescents increased by 23.47% (95% CI, 21.66-25.92) from 1990 to 2021 with an incidence of 110664.59 (95% CI, 62543.83-163447.37) in 2021. Looking at risk factors, Pang and colleagues found that high BMI was the leading risk factor for YLD and that SDI was positively associated with gout incidence and disease burden in the studied population. Taiwan had the highest rates in 2021 and was predicted to continue increasing by 2035.1

Other recent research into gout risk factors, with a new machine learning prediction model, found that physical activity (PA) and lesser sedentary time decreased the risk of gout in people with hyperuricemia (HUA).2

Investigators developed a random forest (RF) model with a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) of 0.957 in the training cohort and 0.799 in the testing cohort. In the test cohort, it demonstrated an accuracy of 0.778, a Kappa of 0.247, a sensitivity of 0.701, a specificity of 0.785, a positive predictive value of 0.224, a negative predictive value of 0.967, and an F1 score of 0.340.2

Using SHAP analysis, Jiao and colleagues identified hypertension, serum uric acid, age, gender, and BMI as the top 5 factors for gout risk. They found that higher serum uric acid levels, age, BMI, creatinine, sedentary duration, lower PA, hypertension, male sex, and diabetes were associated with an elevated risk of gout. Importantly, they found that, regardless of age, sex, or comorbidities, 1 to 7 hours of PA per week was linked to a lower risk of gout, and over 6 hours a day of sedentary time increased gout risk.2

“This approach can help identify appropriate PA patterns to specific individual characteristics, providing better guidance on lifestyle behaviors for gout-prone individuals with HUA, and holds significant clinical relevance,” lead investigator Yanliang Jiao, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China, and colleagues wrote.2

REFERENCES

1. Pang Y, Yuan Y, Zhou W, Liu S, Du Y. Trends and Burden of Gout among Adolescents aged 10-24 years: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Front. Public Health. 30315; 13. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1526141

2. Jiao Y, Cheng Z, Lan Z, Kan S, Du Y. Exploring the Impact of PA and Sedentary Behavior on Gout Risk in Hyperuricemia: Insights From Machine Learning and SHAP Analysis. Int. J. Rheum. Dis. Published online April 23, 2025. doi.org/10.1111/1756-185X.70238