Global Skin Cancer Patterns From 1990 - 2023, Projections to 2050 Identified

In an analysis of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data, worldwide skin cancer burden is projected to rise significantly through 2050, with uniquely steep increases projected in lower- and middle-income areas of the world.1

These findings and others were authored by Youyou Zhou, MD, PhD, from Shenzhen People’s Hospital in China. Zhou and colleagues assessed trends from 1990 - 2023 for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), malignant melanoma, and basal cell carcinoma (BCC), with their focus being an examination of prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).

The team also assessed differences by characteristics such as age, sex, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). The latter characteristic was noted by Zhou et al as a composite indicator incorporating fertility rates, attainment of education, and income per capita.

“Malignant skin cancers impose an escalating and heterogeneous health burden worldwide,” the investigative team said.1,2 “Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database, we summarize these cancers’ epidemiology, subgroup patterns, and projections to 2050.”

Which Skin Cancer Patterns Were Observed?

In their estimation of future burden through 2050, Zhou and coauthors implemented a Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling approach, which accounts for temporal, age-associated, and generational impacts while generating uncertainty estimates around projections. In their assessment of BCC, the team did not include data from 2005-2009 given surveillance-related distortions and instead modeled future trends implementing data collected in the timeframe between 2010 - 2023.

The data noted by the team demonstrated marked geographic disparities in the level of observed skin cancer burden. In 2023, Zhou et al noted, the highest melanoma rates of prevalence were seen in Oceania, exceeding 300 cases per 100,000 patients. They also found cSCC rates were greatest in wealthier Western nations, particularly the US, wherein rates surpassed 200 cases per 100,000 members of the population. BCC prevalence was also highest in North America, Oceania, and in Northern European countries.

DALYs were also found by Zhou and colleagues to be disproportionately concentrated in high-SDI areas of the globe, although trends related to incidence still varied considerably across geographic and economic settings over the course of time. Low- and middle-SDI regions reported persistent levels of growth in incidence between 1990 - 2023 across all 3 types of skin cancer. Especially sharp increases in melanoma incidence were noted in East Asia and Andean Latin America, where prevalence increased by more than 250% during the study period.

Comparable upward patterns were also identified by Zhou and coauthors in high-income Asia-Pacific countries. By contrast, North American trends diverged by the subtype of cancer. Incidence of melanoma dipped modestly in high-income North America, falling by approximately 10%. cSCC and BCC incidence, however, rose substantially by more than 150% and 30%, respectively. While decreases in melanoma DALYs occurred globally, the largest dips were seen in high-SDI areas, including North America and Central Asia.

Meanwhile, cSCC-related DALYs rose considerably in lower-SDI settings. BCC-associated DALYs were relatively stable overall, though notable increases occurred in East Asia and high-income Asia-Pacific regions. Sex-based analyses showed consistently greater prevalence rates among male individuals for all 3 cancers. In 2023, melanoma prevalence reached 28.2 cases per 100,000 males compared with 25.6 cases per 100,000 females. Despite this disparity, melanoma prevalence declined between 2010 - 2023 in both sexes.

Data that were stratified by age suggested melanoma prevalence rose most dramatically among those who were aged 70 years and older, whereas younger adults in the 30-49 year age bracklet experienced declining rates. The team further noted population growth had been a major driver behind rising BCC and cSCC case counts. Zhou et al further identified broader epidemiologic shifts as contributors to melanoma increases, especially among those in lower-middle and middle-SDI regions.

Projections for Skin Cancer by 2050

Projections described by the investigative team pointed to continued escalation in skin cancer burden across the globe through mid-century. By the year 2050, melanoma DALYs were expected to surpass 3.3 million globally. Additionally, cSCC DALYs could approach 4 million and BCC was projected to account for the greatest increase in total burden, nearing 5 million DALYs overall. The team highlighted lower- and middle-SDI areas of the world as likely to deal with the steepest increases across all 3 forms of malignancy.

“Findings of this cross-sectional study indicate distinct regional patterns,” the investigators concluded.1 “Low- and middle-SDI settings demonstrated increasing trends across all 3 cancers, while high-SDI settings showed heterogeneous patterns with melanoma burden stabilizing in some regions and continued challenges in basal cell carcinoma management.”

References

1. Zhou Y, Zhong W, Zhang J, et al. Global Skin Cancer Burden From 1990 to 2023 and Projection to 2050. JAMA Dermatol. Published online May 13, 2026. doi:10.1001/jamadermatol.2026.0964.

2. Zhang W, Zeng W, Lu H, et al. Global, regional and national incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years of skin cancers and trend analysis from 1990 to 2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Cancer Med. 2021 Jul;10(14):4905-4922. doi: 10.1002/cam4.4046. Epub 2021 Jun 9. PMID: 34105887; PMCID: PMC8290243.