Obesity Prevalence in US Increasing Drastically, Expected to Continue into 2035

Despite substantial differences by race, ethnicity, sex, age, and geographical location, obesity prevalence is high and expected to increase across all groups in the US, according to a recent study.1

Obesity, defined in the present study as a body mass index (BMI) ≥30, has increased drastically in prevalence over the last few decades. Its association with a slew of serious health risks, including coronary heart disease and end-stage renal disease, establishes obesity as 1 of the most substantial detriments to public health nationwide.2

“Despite the significant impact obesity has had on public health and the importance of tracking its trends for policy setting, recently updated estimates for current rates of obesity prevalence and projected future trends are not available by race and ethnicity subgroups within US states,” wrote Nicole DeCleene, BS, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, and colleagues.1

The team utilized cross-sectional data on BMI from 2 nationally representative, state-level surveys – the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and Gallup Daily Survey, covering 1988-2022 and 2008-2017, respectively. With these self-reported data, investigators estimated the mean BMI and obesity prevalence from 1990 to 2022 and forecasted their growth through 2035.1

Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) were utilized to correct for the inherent bias of self-reported data. Mean self-reported BMI from Gallup and BRFSS were matched with mean measured BMI in NHANES by sex, age, race and ethnicity, survey year, and quantiles of self-reported BMI. The prevalence of obesity was estimated via estimates of mean BMI, standard deviation, and distribution shape.1

In total, 11,315,421 participants were included – 11,243,644 were sourced from BRFSS and Gallup, while 71,777 were obtained from NHANES. Obesity prevalence increased substantially across the entire US population since 1990; the estimated total of individuals ≥20 years living with obesity has increased from 34.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 31.1-38.3) in 1990 to 107 million (95% UI, 101-113) in 2022. This represents an increase from 19.3% (95% UI, 17.3-21.3%) to 42.5% (95% UI, 40.2-45%) of the population.1

Notably, however, this increase has not been consistent by group at a national level; non-Hispanic Black males have seen the least increase in obesity prevalence, while the largest increases were among Hispanic females – from 24.2% (95% UI, 21.3-27.3%) to 49.4% (95% UI, 46.3-52.4%) – and males – from 17.4% (95% UI, 14.7-20.4%) to 42.6% (95% UI, 39.1-46.2%).1

By 2035, DeCleene and colleagues estimated that the number of individuals ≥20 years living with obesity would reach 126 million (95% UI, 118-134), or 46.9% of the population (95% UI, 43.9-49.9%). Age-standardized obesity prevalence was predicted to reach 53.7% (95% UI, 48.7-57.7%) for Hispanic females and 47.5% (95% UI, 42.5-51.9%) for Hispanic males.1

Across all population groups, obesity prevalence was highest between ages 45 and 64 years, and lower at the youngest and oldest ages. Females saw the largest increase in obesity prevalence among those <35 years, while males saw no consistent pattern by age for any of the 3 race and ethnicity groups.1

Ultimately, DeCleene and colleagues highlighted significant disparities in the estimated prevalence of obesity by race and ethnicity group, particularly in females. Substantial increases have occurred among younger ages since 1990, representing an earlier onset. Additionally, the team noted that a lower prevalence of obesity at older ages likely represents premature mortality for those living with obesity. The prevalence of obesity in 2035 is projected to increase to 46.9% (95% UI, 43.9%-49.9%) of the US adult population.1

“The patterns of obesity shown in the current analysis demonstrate significant health disparities that are likely to continue,” DeCleene and colleagues wrote. “Studies suggest that these disparities are the result of a complex and multifactorial set of causes, including discrimination based on race and ethnicity group, food insecurity and differential access to healthy food, socioeconomic deprivation, and inequities in physical activity access due to neighborhood segregation and aspects of the built environment.”1

References

1. DeCleene NK, Kahn E, Yuan C-W, et al. US state-level prevalence of adult obesity by race and ethnicity from 1990 to 2022 and forecasted to 2035. JAMA. Published online January 28, 2026. doi:10.1001/jama.2025.26817

2. Hales CM, Carroll MD, Fryar CD, Ogden CL. Prevalence of Obesity and Severe Obesity among Adults: United States, 2017-2018. NCHS Data Brief No. 360. National Center for Health Statistics. Published 2020. Accessed December 23, 2025. https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/85451/cdc_85451_DS1.pdf