Psoriasis Incidence Projected to Increase by 2025 Across Various Groups

A new global analysis suggests psoriasis, already a steadily rising dermatologic condition, will impact even more patients worldwide by 2050, with incidence increasing across age cohorts, sexes, and geographic regions.1

These data were authored by investigators such as Linli Liu, MD, from the department of dermatology at Suining Central Hospital in China. Liu and coauthors described psoriasis as a long-standing inflammatory skin condition that continues to contribute substantially to global health challenges. They implemented data drawn from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 to generate projections of worldwide psoriasis incidence through the year 2050.

Distinctions by age range, sex, and geographic region were particularly emphasized in their analysis, as prior research had not fully assessed these factors.

“Understanding these variations is critical for informing public health strategies, improving health care access, and supporting early diagnosis worldwide,” Liu and colleagues wrote.1

Analysis of Psoriasis Incidence

The investigative team looked at information on psoriasis from 236 countries collected between 1990 - 2021, taken from the GBD Study 2021, assessing rates of prevalence, disease incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) reported by patients' sex, age, and geographic area. Through the use of an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, the team forecasted age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) with 95% prediction intervals.

A sensitivity analysis was used by Liu et al to repeat the modeling after the removal of the 2021 data point and training the model on 1990 - 2020 alone. The investigators extended projections to 2050 and the connection between Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and psoriasis burden was assessed via a Spearman correlation. Additionally, ASIR–SDI links were visualized by Liu and colleagues using a scatterplot displaying 95% uncertainty intervals. All analyses were performed by the investigators in July 2025, with statistical significance being set at a 2-sided P < .05 threshold.

Findings on Psoriasis Data

Globally, Liu and coauthors demonstrated a moderate rise between 1990 - 2021 in disease burden. ASIR rose among male patients from 56.89 to 62.77 cases per 100 000, representing a 10.3% increase. In female patients, the investigative team showed a growth in ASIR from 57.08 to 61.26 cases per 100 000, representing a 7.3% increase.

In their extension of the forecasts based on data through 2021, the team concluded ASIR would likely continue to climb, with roughly 70 per 100 000 in men and 66 per 100 000 in women potentially having the disease by the year 2050. The results of Liu and colleagues' sensitivity analysis excluding 2021 from model training projected ASIR among males flattening and showed much broader prediction intervals, while the trajectory for females remained similar to the investigators' main analysis.

Pronounced geographic disparities were also highlighted by Liu et al. East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa showed substantially lower disease estimates, the findings of which the team suggest likely impacted in part by the limited set of available data and possible under-ascertainment. Western Europe and North America showed the highest crude incidence (CIR) and crude prevalence (CPR) rates.

Incidence rates, both age- and sex-specific, were shown by the investigators to be similar among boys and girls in their childhood and adolescent years (ages 5 - 19 years), though disease incidence rose sharply with age among male subjects of the study. Liu and colleagues found this particularly to be the case in older age cohorts. A strong positive link between ASIR and SDI was noted as well (P < .001).

Overall, the modeling study demonstrated a rise in the global burden of psoriasis between 1990 - 2021, aligning with previously-available data. These forecasts would indicate a continual rise in psoriasis incidence among both sexes through 2050, though Liu and coauthors found when they excluded 2021 from model fitting the projected increase for males to have diminished. This led to greater uncertainty, and the team noted the drivers of such sex-specific differences warrant further study.

The finding that psoriasis burden was greatest in high-income regions of the world such as North America and Western Europe was notable as well. The positive correlation between ASIR and SDI mirrors earlier reports, though country-level GBD data was noted by Liu et al as not fully accounting for various ecological confounders, including data availability and demographic composition.

References

1. Liu L, Wang R, Yu C, et al. Global Psoriasis Burden and Forecasts to 2050. JAMA Dermatol. Published online November 26, 2025. doi:10.1001/jamadermatol.2025.4572.

2. GBD 2021 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators. Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet. 2024 May 18;403(10440):2133-2161. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00757-8. Epub 2024 Apr 17. PMID: 38642570; PMCID: PMC11122111.