Rheumatoid Arthritis Burden Has Surged Over Last 30 Years

The global rheumatoid arthritis (RA) burden has significantly increased worldwide, according to a large AI-powered study that also revealed local hotspots and a growing trend of RA in younger people.1

“While previous Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies have provided important insights, they have largely focused on high-level descriptions and visualizations at global and national scales, failing to capture local disparities or the dynamic interactions between socioeconomic development and disease trends,” principal investigator Queran Lin, MPH, WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Education and Training, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London; and Clinical Research Design Division, Clinical Research Centre, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Guangzhou, said in a statement.2 “With access to sufficient computational resources and advanced analytical capabilities, our Global-to-Local Burden of Disease Collaboration aims to unlock the full potential of the GBD dataset (pioneered by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington). By employing cutting-edge approaches such as transformer-based deep learning models, we were able to generate the most granular disease burden estimates to date, offering a new framework for guiding precision public health across diverse populations.”

In the study, Lin and colleagues analyzed the prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) of RA across 953 locations worldwide. They also looked at inequalities and ideal frontiers of these measures and developed a deep-learning pipeline to forecast long-term burdens with scenario simulations.

The investigators found that RA incidence rose by 13.2% from 1990 to 2021, in which it affected 17.9 million people globally, with the affected population growing younger and broader. While the age-standardized death rate fell 32.7% from 1980 to 2021, global DALYs nearly doubled from 1990 to 2021.

“The adoption of this advanced framework quantifies the expected impact of feasible intervention scenarios in public health, supplying policymakers at global, national, and local levels with more reliable, dynamic evidence, redefining the very paradigm of health surveillance,” co-lead investigator Wenyi Jin, MD, PhD, Department of Orthopedics, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University; and Department of Biomedical Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, said.2

Lin and colleagues also sought to identify local hotspots of RA. They found that in 2021, among 652 subnational regions, West Berkshire in the UK had the highest age-standardized incidence rate (35.1; 95% CI, 30.8-39.8) and Zacatecas in Mexico had the highest age-standardized DALY rate (112.6; 95% CI, 87.2-142.7). From 1990 to 2021, regions with high sociodemographic index (SDI) experienced the greatest burden of disease, with disparities widening over time. More than 90% of regions fell behind across frontiers of multiple key RA indicators.

Japan was a notable exception, showing a consistent decline in disease burden, with Tokyo’s age-standardized DALY rate dropping by 22.4% during this period, in contrast to trends seen in other high SDI areas. The investigators’ projections suggest that implementing smoking reduction measures could lead to a 16.8% decrease in RA-related mortality and a 20.6% reduction in DALYs among men in high-smoking countries like China.

“Japan’s sustained decline in DALYs despite a high SDI proves that socioeconomic status alone doesn’t dictate outcomes; proactive healthcare policies such as early diagnosis programs can reverse trends,” co-lead investigator Baozhen Huang, PhD, Department of Biomedical Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, added.2

REFERENCES

1. Jin W, Wang Q, Jin C, et al. Spatiotemporal distributions and regional disparities of rheumatoid arthritis in 953 global to local locations, 1980-2040, with deep learning-empowered forecasts and evaluation of interventional policies’ benefits. Ann Rheum Dis. Published online June 15, 2025. DOI: 10.1016/j.ard.2025.04.009

2. AI-Powered Study Shows Surge in Global Rheumatoid Arthritis Since 1980, Revealing Local Hotspots. News release. Elsevier. June 16, 2025. https://www.elsevier.com/about/press-releases/ai-powered-study-shows-surge-in-global-rheumatoid-arthritis-since-1980