vice president of programs, public affairs, and research at Lung Health Foundation.

Jessica Moffatt, PhD

Safeguards in New Lung Cancer Risk Calculator, With Jessica Moffatt, PhD

Safeguards were a central consideration in the design of the Lung Health Foundation’s online 

risk calculator, particularly given the potential for patients, or even clinicians, to overinterpret a numerical risk estimate.

In an interview with HCPLive, Jessica Moffatt, PhD, vice president of programs, public affairs, and research at Lung Health Foundation, emphasized that the tool uses clear, plain language throughout and includes explicit guidance on next steps. At multiple points in the user journey, the call to action directs individuals to speak with a primary care provider or contact their provincial screening program. The calculator is framed as a supplemental resource.

“All patients can benefit from this,” Moffatt said. “It's really meant to be user-friendly across all patient populations, but it's especially important for patients who may not have a primary care provider. In many lung cancer screening jurisdictions, you can self-refer for a risk assessment. You don't necessarily need that primary care referral, and so for those patients who don't have a primary care provider, this also is a very useful tool for them to help [them] understand if they may be eligible for screening.”

The analysis showed that the calculator could generate a 6-year lung cancer risk estimate in 2 – 3 minutes with only 10 questions. A greater calculated risk does not indicate the presence of lung cancer, and a lower score does not eliminate risk. That distinction is reinforced within the interface to reduce the likelihood that patients equate risk estimation with diagnosis.

Moffatt emphasized that clinicians should not treat this patient-generated score as a definitive eligibility determination. The only official risk assessment is the one conducted within an organized screening program. Clinicians are encouraged to use the estimate to support shared decision-making and referral considerations, not to substitute for formal program-based evaluation.

Beyond mitigating misinterpretation, investigators hope the calculator addresses known barriers to screening. By allowing individuals to privately explore their risk, the tool may help reduce stigma associated with smoking-related disease. It may also prompt more primary care providers to consider lung cancer screening when appropriate.

Moffatt acknowledged that risk models must evolve alongside the evidence base. The current framework primarily reflects heavy smoking history, but rising lung cancer incidence among never-smokers may necessitate future updates. As validated models change, organized screening programs would be expected to adapt accordingly.

For now, Lung Health Foundation positions the calculator as an evidence-informed entry point: designed to clarify, not replace, clinical judgment.

“This is one of the first repackagings of a very cumbersome tool into something that's user-friendly,” Moffatt said. “We would encourage folks to definitely check it out on lunghealth.ca where you can find more information about the risk calculator. It really is meant for anyone interested in understanding their risk profile.”

‘Think Mortgage Calculator, But for Lung Cancer Risk’: A More User-Friendly Self-Serve Tool Gives Canadians and Healthcare Providers a Clearer Starting Point. GlobeNewswire. Published on February 4, 2026. Accessed on February 12, 2026. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/think-mortgage-calculator-lung-cancer-123000493.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9zdGF0aWNzLnRlYW1zLmNkbi5vZmZpY2UubmV0Lw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANFnUl3Oz4FMn8kNg43vqehf_7SF1nUmh0k1LLaCpbMdC9_T-6vswljrh6fwLmRxxEGMwz-0dnFQjGKKfqJJWi0oQETyZDsfkBeYGnzfUqTpyxdDpQumjFy3NQ7FXywWocCd8t8GXlRUV3iH2g3ONrsSgg6yIeNYhnHt2F9RSZuO

Moffatt J. HCPLive. Tool Predicts a 6-Year-Risk Lung Cancer Risk in Minutes, With Jessica Moffatt, PhD. Published on February 12, 2026. Accessed on February 13, 2026. 

https://www.hcplive.com/view/tool-predicts-6-year-risk-lung-cancer-risk-minutes-jessica-moffatt-phd

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Developers emphasize plain language, explicit next steps, and clear limits to ensure the PLCOm2012-based tool supports, rather than replaces, formal lung cancer screening.


New Lung Cancer Risk Calculator Streamlines Screening Eligibility, With Jessica Moffatt, PhD

The Lung Health Foundation has introduced a simplified 

 calculator designed to help patients and clinicians better understand eligibility for organized screening programs across Canada. Built on the validated PLCOm2012 risk prediction model, the online tool translates a previously spreadsheet-based calculator into a plain-language, 10-question interface that generates a 6-year lung cancer risk estimate in 2 – 3 minutes.

Lung cancer screening differs from other cancer screening programs in that it is risk-based rather than population-based. Patients must meet age criteria and have a sufficient smoking history before undergoing a formal risk assessment through a provincial program. That multi-step structure can create uncertainty in primary care settings, particularly during time-limited visits.

, investigator Jessica Moffatt, PhD, vice president of programs, public affairs, and research at Lung Health Foundation, emphasized that the calculator does not diagnose cancer and does not determine formal screening eligibility.

“The only official risk assessment result is the risk assessment result that's conducted with the screening program,” Moffatt said. “What this can do is this can be supplemental to that clinician-patient conversation to really help facilitate that informed decision-making process between the clinician and the patient to help the clinician understand, should I make the referral for screening? Once that referral is made, the official risk assessment is conducted. This is just a tool to help the clinician understand, is my patient actually eligible, or may they be eligible for lung cancer screening?”

The calculator produces a downloadable PDF summary without jargon, allowing patients to bring their responses into an appointment. Developers said this feature was designed with primary care workflows in mind, enabling clinicians to review key inputs, such as age, smoking exposure, comorbidities, and prior cancer history, without navigating a complex risk model during the visit.

The tool may also benefit individuals without a regular primary care provider. In some provinces, patients can self-refer to lung cancer screening programs. A preliminary risk estimate may help them decide whether contacting a screening site is warranted.

The PLCOm2012 model is structured to balance benefit and harm. Low-dose CT screening carries risks, including false positives and downstream procedures. By anchoring the calculator in an established risk framework, the Lung Health Foundation aims to support appropriate screening conversations while reinforcing that patients with symptoms, such as persistent cough, hemoptysis, or unexplained weight loss, require diagnostic evaluation rather than screening.

With many lung cancers still diagnosed at advanced stages, the Lung Health Foundation positions the calculator as an entry point to informed discussions, not a substitute for clinical judgment.

“We recognize how busy primary care providers are, and this is a tool that can help primary care providers, in a very streamlined way, have that discussion with their patient that lung cancer screening may be right for them,” Moffatt said. “It's convenient for the public, but it's also convenient for clinicians.”

The free, user-friendly calculator provides a 6-year lung cancer risk estimate to help patients and clinicians assess screening eligibility.


Jessica Moffatt, PhD

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