Tool Predicts a 6-Year-Risk Lung Cancer Risk in Minutes, With Jessica Moffatt, PhD

The Lung Health Foundation has introduced a simplified lung cancer risk calculator designed to help patients and clinicians better understand eligibility for organized screening programs across Canada. Built on the validated PLCOm2012 risk prediction model, the online tool translates a previously spreadsheet-based calculator into a plain-language, 10-question interface that generates a 6-year lung cancer risk estimate in 2 – 3 minutes.

Lung cancer screening differs from other cancer screening programs in that it is risk-based rather than population-based. Patients must meet age criteria and have a sufficient smoking history before undergoing a formal risk assessment through a provincial program. That multi-step structure can create uncertainty in primary care settings, particularly during time-limited visits.

In an interview with HCPLive, investigator Jessica Moffatt, PhD, vice president of programs, public affairs, and research at Lung Health Foundation, emphasized that the calculator does not diagnose cancer and does not determine formal screening eligibility.

“The only official risk assessment result is the risk assessment result that's conducted with the screening program,” Moffatt said. “What this can do is this can be supplemental to that clinician-patient conversation to really help facilitate that informed decision-making process between the clinician and the patient to help the clinician understand, should I make the referral for screening? Once that referral is made, the official risk assessment is conducted. This is just a tool to help the clinician understand, is my patient actually eligible, or may they be eligible for lung cancer screening?”

The calculator produces a downloadable PDF summary without jargon, allowing patients to bring their responses into an appointment. Developers said this feature was designed with primary care workflows in mind, enabling clinicians to review key inputs, such as age, smoking exposure, comorbidities, and prior cancer history, without navigating a complex risk model during the visit.

The tool may also benefit individuals without a regular primary care provider. In some provinces, patients can self-refer to lung cancer screening programs. A preliminary risk estimate may help them decide whether contacting a screening site is warranted.

The PLCOm2012 model is structured to balance benefit and harm. Low-dose CT screening carries risks, including false positives and downstream procedures. By anchoring the calculator in an established risk framework, the Lung Health Foundation aims to support appropriate screening conversations while reinforcing that patients with symptoms, such as persistent cough, hemoptysis, or unexplained weight loss, require diagnostic evaluation rather than screening.

With many lung cancers still diagnosed at advanced stages, the Lung Health Foundation positions the calculator as an entry point to informed discussions, not a substitute for clinical judgment.

“We recognize how busy primary care providers are, and this is a tool that can help primary care providers, in a very streamlined way, have that discussion with their patient that lung cancer screening may be right for them,” Moffatt said. “It's convenient for the public, but it's also convenient for clinicians.”

References

‘Think Mortgage Calculator, But for Lung Cancer Risk’: A More User-Friendly Self-Serve Tool Gives Canadians and Healthcare Providers a Clearer Starting Point. GlobeNewswire. Published on February 4, 2026. Accessed on February 12, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/think-mortgage-calculator-lung-cancer-123000493.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9zdGF0aWNzLnRlYW1zLmNkbi5vZmZpY2UubmV0Lw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANFnUl3Oz4FMn8kNg43vqehf_7SF1nUmh0k1LLaCpbMdC9_T-6vswljrh6fwLmRxxEGMwz-0dnFQjGKKfqJJWi0oQETyZDsfkBeYGnzfUqTpyxdDpQumjFy3NQ7FXywWocCd8t8GXlRUV3iH2g3ONrsSgg6yIeNYhnHt2F9RSZuO